Recommendation 38: Will Sierra Leone Hold Elections in 2028 or 2030?
By: James Kamara-Manneh
The implementation of Recommendation 38 of the Tripartite Committee Report has raised important questions about the timing of Sierra Leone’s next general elections and the possible political implications of the country’s 2026 census.
Recommendation 38 addresses the use of census data for electoral purposes and boundary delimitation. It proposes that only data from a decennial census should be used for determining parliamentary representation. It also introduces a 24-month safeguard: where the final report of a census is published within 24 months of a general election, that census data should not be used to determine parliamentary representation or redraw electoral boundaries for that election.
The intention appears straightforward. The recommendation seeks to prevent the electoral map from being altered at the last minute using newly released population figures. In doing so, it aims to provide greater predictability and stability in the electoral process.
However, the timing of Sierra Leone’s 2026 census has brought the recommendation into sharper focus.
If the final report of the 2026 census is published within 24 months of the 2028 general election, the proposed constitutional provision would prevent those census figures from being used to determine parliamentary representation for that election. The critical issue, therefore, is not simply when the census is conducted, but when its final results are officially published.
This has fueled a broader public debate over whether the 2028 elections could be affected by the implementation of Recommendation 38.
There is, however, an important distinction that must be maintained. Recommendation 38 does not, by itself, state that the 2028 presidential and parliamentary elections should be postponed to 2030. Its central concern is the use of census data for parliamentary representation and boundary delimitation. The question of whether elections can legally be postponed is a separate constitutional matter.
The distinction is particularly important because the Constitutional Amendment Bill 2025 incorporated Recommendation 38. The proposed amendment would require the use of the most recent decennial census for allocating parliamentary seats while establishing the 24-month safeguard.
At the same time, the constitutional amendment itself has become controversial. The material indicates that Parliament passed the Constitutional Amendment Bill on 10 August 2026, but questions have subsequently emerged over the interpretation of Section 108(2)(b) and the constitutional majority required to pass amendments.
This creates two separate issues that should not be conflated: what Recommendation 38 provides, and whether the constitutional amendment incorporating it has been validly enacted and commenced.
The political implications, nevertheless, are significant.
A census provides an updated picture of population distribution and can influence the basis for fair political representation. But Recommendation 38 deliberately creates a two-year buffer between the publication of census results and their use for electoral representation. The underlying logic is to ensure that population data are not suddenly translated into new electoral boundaries immediately before an election.
That safeguard could strengthen electoral predictability. However, it also raises a legitimate question: should Sierra Leone wait until after the next general election to use fresh population data, even if those data provide a more accurate picture of the country?
This is where the public debate must become more informed.
Comments attributed to Sierra Leone People’s Party Publicity Secretary Moses Mambu on Epic Radio suggesting that the general election could be held in 2030 have added another dimension to the discussion. Such statements naturally raise concerns about whether the 2028 electoral timetable could be altered.
But speculation about a 2030 election should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of a plan to extend the President’s constitutional tenure.
Any extension of a president’s tenure would require a clear constitutional and legal basis. It cannot simply arise because the census process takes longer than expected or because Recommendation 38 creates restrictions on the use of census data.
The central question for Sierra Leoneans should therefore be: Can the country conduct the census, publish its final results, comply with the constitutional requirements on representation and boundaries, and still hold the next general elections within the constitutionally prescribed timeframe?
That question deserves a clear answer from the relevant constitutional and electoral authorities.
The public also deserves clarity on the exact timetable for the 2026 census, the expected date of publication of the final report, the legal status of the Constitutional Amendment Bill, and how the 24-month rule would operate in relation to the 2028 elections.
For now, it would be premature to conclude that Recommendation 38 automatically means Sierra Leone will not hold elections in 2028. The available material makes clear that the ultimate effect depends on the legal status and commencement of the constitutional amendment, as well as the date on which the final 2026 census report is published.
What is certain is that the issue requires transparency.
Sierra Leone has already experienced intense political debate over electoral processes, constitutional amendments and representation. Any uncertainty surrounding the next general election risks further increasing political tension.
The responsibility now lies with the relevant state institutions to provide a clear legal and electoral roadmap.
Will Recommendation 38 strengthen electoral stability, or could its implementation create a new constitutional and political dilemma?
And perhaps the most important question for citizens is this: Will Sierra Leone’s next general election take place in 2028 as expected, or will circumstances create a path towards 2030?
Until the constitutional and electoral issues are conclusively settled, Sierra Leoneans should demand answers based on the law; not speculation.
